2012-09-25
2012-10-03
x george w. bush

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MSNBCW 15
MSNBC 14
CNN 11
CNNW 11
FBC 7
CSPAN 6
CSPAN2 5
CNBC 1
KNTV (NBC) 1
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English 93

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points. these are not implausible assumptions. mitt romney would have to get double john mccain's margin of 18 points. could have to up to 36 points. that is if it does not change. d, ands does get realize if the white college graduates face about the same, it means that met romney would have to get north of 40 point margin of the white voter. let's take a look of where we are now. this is the gold standard. breaks. this shows that obama is leading by 8 points. if you look at the averages, it is a bit high. the averages are running about four points. you are probably up by five points. this is within the averages. it is similar to the pole from the heartland monitor which will talk about later. overall top line, a look at the margin, 91 points. that is basically identical. 7222 among 852 margin. most have been showing this. what this means is that the idea that obama could get 80% of the minority vote is quite logical based on these and other data that looks like what he will get. this shows you the break out for college graduates. , obama is doing a little bit better among white graduat

that are saying farewell. see what he says about george w. bush and john mccain. this is "the daily rundown." i am chuck todd. let's get to the first reads of the morning. in the last two weeks, we polled in nine battleground states deciding the election. ohio, florida, virginia, colorado, iowa, wisconsin, north carolina, nevada, new hampshire. bad news for mitt romney, he doesn't lead in a single one. at best within the poll's margin of error. at worst, trails by eight points. this morning, how the nine states stack up. we said it again and again. the president's job approval rating may be the best indicator of where the bout may be. where it is more than 50, the president favored to win. iowa, florida, new hampshire, ohio, virginia, his approval rating below that, 47 or 48 in four. colorado, nevada, north carolina, wisconsin. here is a second way to breakdown the numbers. romney struggled with favorability number all year. that number underwater, more voters have unfavorable than favorable view in six states. romney is in positive territory in just three. florida, north carolina, virginia. final

in this race, mitt romney would have to get double john mccain's margin of 18 points among the white working class in this election. that's youth turnout doesn't change among minority's despite the shifts in eligible voters. if this does get realize, let's say minority vote share goes up by couple of points, 26% as was in 2008 to 28% in 2012, and again if the white college graduate and minority support stays about the same, it means mitt romney would have to get north of 40-point margin among white working-class voters to actually win the election, to win the popular vote. so let's take look at where we are now based on a reasonable came out. it's the gold standard for polls. a pew research center. no one else -- no offense to anyone else in the room who has april. they really do it right. it's pretty reliable stuff. they give you a lot of interesting demographic breaks tradition as among likely voters that obama is leading now by eight points. if you look at the average of the national polls as a bit high relative to the average. the average has been running about four-point. if you look at

, in fact, at best a few points better than wind mccain ran in 2008 and he is doing no better at all among white college graduates. that is one reason why the state is at this point looking pretty favorable toward barack obama. he could carry it by as much as he did in 2008. and also, if you look at it geographically obama is doing very well in the columbus area, which is kind of the slim support where it counts. o.c. investors and a lot of other states. the grace to the pennsylvania which, again, if their romney team could have put pennsylvania in place it would have been the key to a lot of other things. but the problem for them now is that pennsylvania is looking very difficult for them. obama is barely running in eight or nine or ten. average margin. it's just not happening. again, it comes back to what appeared to be the big coke, that they could drive up the white working-class margins in that state. 2008, a 15-point of vantage for john mccain, but the polls coming out of pennsylvania again and again show is not doing any better than-15. so basically the state is looking very similar

and turn the majpage. congressman paul ryan and paul mccain. take a look at this approach. >> the response was slow. it was confused. it was inconsistent. they first said that it was a youtube video and a spontaneous mob. we now know that it was a planned terrorist attack. if this was one tragic incident, that would be a tragedy in and of itself. the problem is it's part of a bigger picture of the fact that the obama foreign policy is unraveling literally before our eyes on our tv screens. >> i think it interferes with the depiction that the administration is trying to convey, that al qaeda is on the wane, that everything's fine in the middle east. >> you think it's political? >> i think there are certain political overtones. how else could you trot out our u.n. ambassador to say it was spontaneous? >> maybe it was. >> five days later? that doesn't pass the smell test. it was ever ignorance or willful intelligence. >> whether you agree with him or not, senator mccain has the credibility, a war hero, with great experience in washington dealing with foreign policy, how do you think, though,

the economy imploded, john mccain's advisers say his campaign collapsed along with it and never recovered. historians say in order for an october surprise to have a real 11th hour impact it has to feed into a narrative that already exist, whether it's carter's ineffectiveness or questions about mccain's credentials on the economy. >> it's not so much that suddenly eureka this is so surprising, so amazing, but rather people nod yes, this is where we thought things were going. >> dana bash joins us live from washington. first of all, i guess people will take a look at friday's numbers, the jobs numbers and do we think that could be a, the october surprise that people are waiting for, the unemployment? >> reporter: you know, it could be if it's anything like the unemployment reports that we've seen important the past several months it's going to be pretty static and that would not be a surprise. but, you know, what was interesting about what the presidential historian said that we talked to said it's true about these october surprises. they only have an impact if, because it's so late in the

in the field, that romney has a good ground game in ohio. knocking on 28 times as many doors as john mccain did. that's a pretty stunning ratio. why isn't he doing better? >> the mccain campaign wasn't renowned for its ground game. romney has about half as many offices in ohio as the obama campaign, which has been embedded in the state, yet according to "the washington post poll, the romney campaign is doing a good job keeping up. these volunteers and field staffers for the campaign don't really know what product they're selling because mitt romney hasn't really articulated. a compelling message as to why they should throw out barack obama because the economy in ohio is doing better than it is in other parts of the country. >> it is and the question is, who gets the credit ryan joins me now along with roland martin. roland, that was the kind of, you're not afraid to say what you think. a kick in the you know, at least they're saying they feel the way they feel. >> actually, honesty is always the best policy. it's amazing they are making sarah palin out to look like a you know, profit, if you wi

during mccain one on ones. while romney did well in this season's gop debates, had rough performances, bet you $10,000 he did. romney performances, the unspoken body language that the camera captured, they were brutal against ted kennedy. ivy league will enjoy biden versus ryan more. trust me. >>> turning back to the brand new battleground polls. there's a different pattern emerging, president obama is ahead in new hampshire, tighter in nevada and north carolina. joining me, director of the marist poll. good to see you in person. >> welcome to the home of the new york yankees. >> you're going to blow the playoff run. >> i am worried. >> we want the beltway series in washington. we have been looking at this as sort of the generic, the general all nine states. what is your take away? >> i think what you're seeing is a very big difference when obama is 45, 46 as months ago when everything was 44, now he gets to 48, 49, 50, you can say it makes a difference -- >> it does feel like 48 is a big difference -- >> seeing a change in the right direction in the approval rating. >> massive gender

blame this man, john sydney mccain iii. >> he looks happy there. >> this is the message i had. he wrote about this in the daily news today. mitt is running in the wrong year against the wrong barack obama. just imagine if he had run in 2008 and won the nomination instead of john mccain. next to the junior senator from illinois, he actually would have looked very grown up, right? he had run businesses and the olympics and been a governor back when being a governor was still a big deal for running for president. he could run on romney care instead of against it. his response to the economic meltdown, would have been i got this. i can handle it this, as opposed to mccain's which was to freak out and suspend his campaign. of course, the us versus them 99% kind of class war rhetoric of "occupy wall street" hadn't begun yet. it was still acceptable to be a rich guy and not have to wear the scarlet "a" on your chest. being an expletive we know and not adultery. it would have been the perfect time and the perfect obama for mitt romney to run against. i can't think of a worse moment for a multi-

thank you for the call. i remind you mitt romney gave john mccain 22 years of tax records which tells me he's much more enthusiastic about being vice president. it's the bill press show. we'll be right back. dose of politics from a fresh perspective. >>i'm a slutty bob hope. the troops love me. >>only on current tv. >> this is the bill press show. i'm john fugelsang. we are back on the air. i'm putting my breakfast to the side. normally, i try to sneak food in the commercial breaks. i learned from stephanie miller that it's actually very professional to eat on camera. >> i was going to wait for you to take a bite and ask your question. >> if you'd like to watch someone eating during a radio show on t.v., stay tuned. the stephanie miller show follows and you can watch them go crazy. that's really the food network. we're taking your calls at 866-55-press. our last caller, paul from seattle made good points about governor romney's tax returns. my two theories about why he doesn't want his tax returns released on the surface he doesn't want folks to know he's this wealthy and makes all this

a sense of how relentlessly message to john mccain is. he used the term spread the wealth of around three times. another thing that strikes me is how obama is making eye contact with became the entire time he is talking. he looks right at them. there was a lot of discussion from the earlier debates in 2008 that mccain was having a hard time making like act -- making eye contact. it came off as rude. another thing that jumps out on me is the contrast of the youthful obama and a much more senior mccain. obama actually was more the adult in my opinion in that relationship in that he was very calm and cool under fire. mccain, although that last debate was his best, he had moments where he was a little erratic and some of those earlier debates. >> you said, both president obama and governor romney share a sense of trepidation about going mano-a-mano on live television. how may it went up boxing them in? >> neither one of them has and enjoyment of debating. that is a weird word to use. i think the ones who are really good at it and the ones who really come across of the people who get up on tha

. and these are the exact same tactics his firm was accused of in 2004 and 2006. >> jennifer: okay. mccain still hired anymore 2008. >> actually the same thing keeps playing out. in 2008 sproul changed his name to lincoln and mccain hired him using a california affiliate. >> jennifer: here is what kills me about this, lee, is the rnc cuts their ties with him. they sown shocked that this would happen. calling it a few bad apples, and yet they have this history with him. >> it reveals the conceit by the republican party who have been hammering voter fraud. these tactics that have been accused against acorn. but here they have a firm they have been paying millions of dollars. they know it is a problem, because they asked him to change his worry because this fraud occurred inside the republican party, that they will use it to justify their voter integrity scheme across the coup try. they'll cut their ties they hey, but because it's so rampant we'll continue to press on with these voter id laws. >> i think they probably will try some type of tactic like that. but there's a substantive

. and frankly senator mccain voted for 4-5 of president bush's budgets. >> senator obama, i am not president bush. if you wanted to run against president bush you should have run four years ago. chris: there's an example of a well-prepared -- we knew, i'm sure senator mccain knew that was coming. you notice how he did that automatically? this time around it's more dangerous, isn't it? for president obama to blame a guy four years ago. >> yeah, because people are going to say, what did you do lately? you've had four years to fix the economy and look at the economic malaise we're still in. look at the jobs reports. last month, adding 96,000 jobs. not even enough to keep pace with population growth. chris: we put the first debate to the matthews meter. 12 of our regulars, including john, kelly and howard is mitt romney more likely to break through wednesday night on style points or on substantive arguments? nine say substance. three say style. you voted with the majority. howard, -- >> well, he's got to do it. again, deftly with humor. but he's got to brace the president. he's got to say, look,

be off. i was on the mccain campaign so i've seen him in primary debates with mccain, in primary debates in 2008 and now in 2012. ki tell you, there's times he's on, like when he was in florida in the last two primary debates. there's times he's been totally off, like the last two debates in south carolina where newt gingrich had him on the ropes. >> but he has to do something to turn around the dime nick this race. >> what's interesting is, yes, you have sort of the official romney/ryan line that mitt romney can't form a complete sentence and bark obama is cicero and it's going to be very hard. but what christie said is what you're hearing from people behind the scenes. there was a piece with a lot of anonymous quotes from romney aides saying, we need a game changer. i think the good news for romney is if you look back to those primary debates that you were talking about, he did the best in the debates where it seemed like he absolutely had to win. so the south carolina debate, seemed like he was on cruise control, sort of playing a prevent defense against newt gingrich. but then once g

, getting a lot of the theology wrong what she believes. in 2008, john mccain was endorsed by several pastors and it became multi-day stories in the media about john mccain's endorsements but the jeremiah wright stuff, you talk to a lot of reporters, they say barack obama never went to jeremiah wright's church. he just used that to build his political career in chicago. i as a conservative really don't think the media has portrayed barack obama's relationship with jeremiah wright as he himself did in 2008 and i still think that's a relevant topic. >> actually, bryce, let me bring you in here. then candidate obama in 2008 did make that speech in which he said i was there when he made controversial remarks and just like a lot of people disagree with their pastors, i disagreed with him on some of the things he said and here's the person i know, and then distanced himself. what do you make of this tape tonight? >> i think it's very interesting that anybody would say that we haven't properly vetted president obama. there are few situations where you are going to be scrutinized more heavily

with mitt. which is it? >> that's right. you could imagine john mccain in 2008 saying, wait a second, that 47% is made up of veterans who have paid their debt to society with blood literally. it's made up of mostly working people, most of that 47% are working americans, working middle class, working poor. >> hard working who earn less than $30,000 a year. >> or even $40,000 or $50,000 and many of those -- many of that 47% is made up of seniors. you know, this network is going to have a new poll later today that's going to show the race tightening and the national numbers but not in the battleground states i think. one of the big reasons for that, one of the big underreported reasons for that is how the romney/ryan ticket has offended seniors. we've talked about how this ticket offended women, african-americans, hispanics. the big story is how they have offended seniors and how seniors have gone from the romney/ryan camp into the obama camp largely i think because of the ryan plan on medicare, and so that -- the 47% was poorly answered by ryan, but an equal weight around this campaign

beat john mccain by just one point. 49 to 48. but among white men in 2008, he lost by 16 points to john mccain. among white males so far in 2012 romney leads -- you heard some of the leads among other groups but among white males romney over obama 60% to 34%. a 26-point lead among white males. i don't get it. i guess the question is what's wrong with white males. other question is can white males alone save mitt romney? i don't think so. i would love your take on this. help us figure it out. 1-800-steph-12. look what is it about white men? is it they're afraid of losing their job? they're afraid of losing their homes? they're afraid of not getting ahead in the world? they're afraid they won't be able to take care of their families. they're afraid of a black man? what is it? is it racism? is it that they just can't stand the fact that there is a black man in the oval office and you know, they're a white guy and this is a white country and our forefathers were white and what's going on here? we're losing

he's not such a great debater, he hasn't done this in four years since debating john mccain where as mitt romney had all this practice. even last night the president was trying to downplay his expectations. >> who is going to put the most points on the board? [you are ] >> no, no, governor romney, he's a good debater. i'm just okay. but what i'm most concerned about is having a serious discussion about what we need to do to keep the country growing and restore security for hard-working americans. >> i'm just okay the president says in terms of debating, although i remember back in tpwaeut 2008 he did a pretty good job against hillary clinton. a pretty good job with john mccain. by the way, no sign of lindsay lohan here yet. jenna: where are the celebrities going to come in next. ed you're better than okay. back toed as news warrants in las vegas. i gregg: if she was there you would know it. jenna:ed would be all over that. gregg: the man who wants president obama's job also getting ready for the first debate. governor mitt romney will be heading to denver a bit later today ahead o

'm martha maccallum. the romney campaign is joining this growing chorus of lawmakers. senator john mccain saying the administration's response was inept and ignorant and susan rice blaming it on a spontaneous protest was inexcusable. >> it's either willful ignorance or abysmal ignorance to think people come to spontaneous demonstrations with mortars and heavy weapons pant attack goes on for hours. bill: both sides are complaining. governor romney's team says the white house is still getting its story mixed up. >> reporter: democrats say republicans are politicizing the tragic attack that cost of life of four americans. the republicans say the white house is cover ugging up the details for political reasons. here is axlerod. >> the president called it an act of terror the day after it happened. but when you are the responsible party, when you are the administration and you have a responsibility to act on what you know and what the intelligence community believed. >> reporter: actually it was several days after the benghazi attack before the white house called it terrorism and that came aft

like the mccain campaign. more focused on tactics than the overall -- let's just say rovian-type strategy. karl rove had a strategy in 2000 and 2004 before he started, and he stuck with it the entire campaign. i don't see that focus here with romney's top advisers. >> there hasn't been that focus. and i think what's really blindsided the campaign, they're obviously worried about the polls that you just discussed. what's really, really worries them is that the right track number coming out of the convention, the number of people who feel like the country's headed in a better direction, that that number really shot up after the democratic conventions and that they're picking that up in swing states, in a lot of these senate races. and that suggests a mood shift in the electorate that they don't fully understand. they think it has something to do with the convention. maybe a little bit to do with the economy in some of these swing states that the economy's still not good, but there are at least signs of the housing front that it might be getting a little bit better. and now the

senator rob portman will star as president obama. he also did it in john mccain's 2008 campaign. ahead of next week's debates, both sides have been lowering expectations. >> the president is, obviously, a very eloquent, gifted speaker. he'll do just fine. >> mitt romney has an advantage because he's been through 20 debates in the primaries oefrt the last year. >> barack obama is a very effective debater. >> we know governor romney is practicing for months. i think the invasion of normandy took less preparation than he's putting into the debates. >> i'm joined by the president of progress and former obama white house adviser and also with us is robert trainum. nera, you helped with hillary clinton's debate preps and you worked robert with with rick santorum and president bush. let's get to the heart of it, robert. both sides lowering expectations, but realistically how important is this debate for romney "nightly newmitt romney? >> it's very important. this is his second time to make an impression. the first time was during the republican convention. the second time is in a situation wh

. the key state of virginia, among white working-class voters -- mccain carried this one in 2008. thirty-one or 32 points as they came back in 2008. to add to that, college graduate groups, obama lost by about 11 points in 2008 and he is basically about even among white college graduate voters in general. that makes it very difficult for romney to put together a coalition that can take this state. colorado has been a state that has been very close. obama has a three or four-point lead. quite a bit of demographic change. minority eligible voters down by three percentage points. the white working-class voters. they have gone down by three percentage points. again, it doesn't appear that romney 2008 among white college graduates, he is not making nearly enough progress. if you break it down geographically, it looks very similar to the data in 2008. finally, the poster child -- obama is running ahead, not merely as far as he did in 2,082,008. that is a very quick maybe it is time for me to step back and catch my breath and say why is this? what is going on? so the health care reform act and

of the white working-class would be the best group for ronny to make progress and mccain carried by 17 points in 2008. look at a breakout from the poles provided and we are not seeing any progress among these voters. we are not seeing a noticeably bigger margin among white working-class voters for the gop candidate. is not happening and that is being translated as a similar margin placed like the i 4 corridor in the center of the state where tampa and orlando are and the miami metro area. .. we see college graduate group that obama lost by about 11 points in 2008. facing the most polls he's physically about even. i think that makes it very difficult for romney to put together a coalition that can take the state. colorado has been fairly close so again obama mabey looks like a fairy or four-point lead on average read a lot of demographic change. you can see the minority eligible voters have gone up by three percentage points and working-class voters in 2008 have gone down by three percentage points. again it doesn't appear that romney is able to turn the demographics tie in his favor. he's not

disadvantages of senator mccain, and governor romney is still running against george w. bush with economic policies. >> yes, but that was -- that's been true in the past, and many presidential changes -- for example, think about president reagan, he was running against the catastrophic effects of nixon's wage on price controls lasting up to 1980 and carter. the "new york times," i have to remind you, the "new york times" on the eve of the election between reagan and carter had it too close to call. lou: the third debate? >> that is right. lou: i know it's right. up next, governor romney trailing in the polls, but does history show come from behind wins are possible? as we disused, there -- discussed, there is history here. we'll have the report. are taxpayer dollars -- they call it art, but looks like obscenity to me, but there we are. we'll look at the ways in which the obama administration expresses religious sensitivity and tolerance and other ways in which had does not seem to give much of a damn. we'll talk about catth catholic league president, bill don hue and karen handle here in j

different instances from the mccain camp and $7 million from the bush and cheney camp in 2004. so it's not like this is a onetime accident. no they hire them to do something wrong. they project and say, oh i didn't believe the democrats are doing voter fraud, because they have been paying millions of dollars all this time to do voter fraud. the l.a. times explained . . . >> in other words the party knew who he was doing. they liked to change the name and let's do it again. they have been doing this for a long, long time. here they have priorities destroying democratic voter registration forms, failing to process democratic registrations, attempting to put ralph nader on the ballot in 2004 because they wanted to take votes away from john kerry. they got banned by wal-mart for partisan registration efforts. how right-wing do you have to be to get banned by wal-mart? the most important part of all of that is taking democratic demonstrations and ripping them up as they have in the past or as they were in this case in florida changing the addresses, so when somebody go

john mccain and barack obama four years ago. the first debate was the first letdown. a lot of wonkiness. they didn't go after each other very hard. they were a little bit nervous in feeling each other out. >> eliot: the notion they would enjoy it, i can tell you i've been through debates nothing on term with that, you don't enjoy it. there are butterflies in your stomach when you walk out there. you know the campaign potentially rests on every utterance you make. there is the his tansey -- hesitancy no matter how skilled you may be, there is a hesitancy and a fear. that's unavoidable. >> how do you deal with glenn beck who is a master of television regardless of what people may think about him. they're using a nice picture of you grimacing. glenn beck has the smile and you don't. >> eliot: i'm trying to scare him. getting prefight cut to look bloodied and beaten up even before we start. it will be fun. in a way this emotionally is similar to what people go through in a debate. you want to make your point

in recent presidential elections. just ask john mccain who made his own last-ditch effort. >> there's just one day left until we take america in a new direction. we need to win in pennsylvania tomorrow. with your help we will win. >> reporter: now, it's unclear what kind of resources romney would put into pennsylvania when asked whether the campaign would buy any ads here, romney aide said that is for the romney campaign to know and for the obama campaign to worry about. but getting back to that phone call, wolf, between romney and prime minister netanyahu, mitt romney just briefed reporters on his campaign plane just about half an hour ago about that conversation. he said netanyahu did talk about that red line on where he would try to draw a line on iran's nuclear weapons program. and romney said he offered his own comments on the issue but wouldn't go into any greater detail than that. and also it's also interesting to note, wolf, romney was asked on the plane about any current assessments on how the president and how the white house is handling the diplomatic attacks in libya, the inves

. [cheers] and senator mccain came up. in a very busy time, he would still come here every year. and i think it is in no small measure because he basicly started his life as an ngo. that is what he was pictured as, a community organizer. then he picked a secretary state who was a walking ngo. so i am very grateful that he made time to give us a speech here today. i am particularly appreciative of what he came here to speak about today. mr. president, the podium is yours, and thanks for coming in again. [applause] >> thank you. thank you so much. thank you. thank you. thank you very much. please be seated. to president clinton, thank you that somebody needs to make him secretary of explaining things. [laughter] although they did not use the word "things." [laughter] president clinton, you are a tireless, passionate advocate on behalf of what is best for our country. you have helped improve and save the lives of millions of people around the world. i am grateful for your friendship and your extraordinary leadership, and i think i speak for the entire country when we say that you continue to be

for president obama, eli, big, back in 2008. 55%. john mccain, 42%. but colorado switched back and forth, went to president obama 2004 to president bush in 2000 president bush. what is this place now and what is the biggest issue here for folks you hear? >> colorado is a huge bellwether in the intermountain west. it has been for a few cycles. it's a big bellwether for which way the state will go. not always a swing county. it was conservative going back ten years or so. new population in arapahoe county has changed things. folks are moving from other states in colorado. it has a little more liberal in the suburbs here. it's a pocketbook issues, the same thing that you hear in all the swing states. soccer moms and families. who worry about making the budget and holing on to their home. >> bret: both candidate, president and romney have been here a number of times. clearly the campaigns believe that this state is within both grasps. >> absolutely. you look at the amount of time that president obama has spent, be here a couple of days from now for the debate. romney, the same thing. you cannot go

breaker it could be thisear. , of btse casteforelection d. early voting favored barack obama over john mccain by 18 points. 58% to 40%. this year,7 states and washington, d.c., will have early in-person voting prior to e aiartingay. eavoting parcipaon at around 40% this year. two out of every five ballots will be filled out before november 6th in this election cycle. todais truly the beginning of the end of the presidential election. but one candidate is in much better pition to take advantage of t new voting thyn t wcall american democracy. here's a look at mitt romney's field offices in iowa. the romney camp pass 12 outposts across the hawkeye state. now take a look at president obama's operation. his field operation in iowa. thammp h6 these outpost offices. the president's campaign has a 5 1/2-1 advantage over mitt romney when it comes to operation in iowa. these field offices are the lifeblood of presidential campaigns. ths e aist thget t toote efforts and organize volunteers. today, "the new york times" ported from polling aces in iowa and found mostly outspoken obama supporters. >> do y

. john mccain himself says it starts with immigration. it is not the only issue. but how does the republican candidate run the gauntlet of a primary season in which region where there are attacks from the white -- from the right? we saw it with matt wittman. -- meg whitman. thegot attacked in primary. she bought out pete wilson and she wanted to deport her nanny by the end of the election. the hispanic vote turned out a dent in huge numbers for jerry brown who did very little to win their affections. >> we could easily be having this conversation about the democratic difficulties among whites. it would change -- if you have the candidate with half the hispanic vote, we would talk about why obama would drop from 42% whites to lower. a hurdle that is so high. the share of whites who have to win become the reagan-s. -- reagan-esque. >> hispanics are not attached to the democratic party the way african-americans are. we cannot just assume because there is a growth of spending votes that those of democratic votes. republicans who run for office did very well with hispanic voters. a

it sound like he cleaned john mccain's clock, he won 41% which is slightly better than democrats typically do. mary katherine? >> and, jon, that's the thing about these voting blocs that tend to skew either way, women for democrats, men for republicans, is that you only have to peel off a certain number of those voters. and the reason we're talking about this gender gap now and the reason we generally do, the reason we talked about women so intensely for a while is because republicans turned the tide and won women in 2010. and so democrats were concerned about that, and they spent a lot of time messaging on that. the reason we're talking about it now is because as mr. rosenberg says, they're closing that gap a little bit on the left. but a lot of these guys are still hurting really bad. like i said, white male working-class voters hit hard by the economy, 55-28 for romney in a recent study from the public religion research institute. so there's a lot of work to be done, and there's a message to say, hey, look, this is not the new normal. do not be satisfied with spending a bunch of tax mon

dan lothian john kerry is playing mitt romney. take a listen to john mccain. he spoke with candy crowley yesterday on "state of the union." john mccain the last man to debate president obama. >> i think both are excellent in their own way. i think you could argue that mitt has had a lot more recent experience. obviously. but also, candy, part of it depends on who's moderating. >> the man's been on the national stage for many years. he's an experienced debate per. this is mitt's first time on this kind of stage. >> paul ryan on the sunday talk shows. the running mate talking down expeations. look at this count. brand-new from abc news/"washington post" this morn ing. who's more likely to win the debates? the president by 20-some points. a lot of americans think the president will have the upper hand on wednesday night in denver. >> we'll see. many thanks. cnn's live coverage of wednesday night's debate starts at 7:00 eastern. >>> syria is expected to try to justify its actions in its bloody civil war when its foreign minister speaks before the united nations general assembly later

're talking about urban, rural, married, single, young, old. the reality is in 2008 mccain won married women. the problem was that obama won single women by 45 points,72-27. so single women are a critical voting bloc for president obama, and they are the basis for the war on women, for sandra fluke, for the life of julia. the question is, is that going to be enough to win him the white house again in november? jenna: so let's talk about those specific blocs and how you speak to them as a candidate. kimberly strases el of "the wall street journal" had an interesting article on this on friday, and she argued that it's not the democrats ea platform that's more attractive to women, it's that women appreciate that they're being spoken to directly. sabrina, do you think that's a problem that the gop has? >> yeah, i think there are a lot of women in the middle, um, who don't necessarily identify with that gender feminism and the pandering that's going on in the left, but they don't necessarily identify with the social conservativism of the right x. republicans are less comfortable sort of playing g

people in the game the first debate. >> did you know mccain beat obama on election day in iowa and that obama got his margin of victory there strictly from early voting? they know that and they're doing it much more robustly this time around. >> the president is urging it on the stump. >> if you look at a state like iowa and which parties requested how many absentee ballots democrats requested a hundred thousand. republicans 16,000. so that gives you an inkling of the early voting and which way it is likely to go. >> i think it is really getting into that point that he has to turn it around by now. >> you know what? things can change overnight. >> they can. >> with a great debate performance. but again, mark halperin, time is running out. if you look at all of the polls, we've been seeing over the past couple weeks, mark, ohio, florida, the big swing states. it seemed to be moving decidedly in the president's direction. let's look right now. i want you to give me your input on these states on a group of other battleground states we haven't looked at as closely. this comes from

and had someone been disappointed with some the effects of that. then we had john mccain who really never came out and endorsed the faith community at all. and then we had a president elected and all of us were excited. i was excited with the hope and change message. hoping some good things happen. i vote for democrats. i vote for republicans. i was excited about that. after four years, looking at issues like same sex marriage, all of the life issues which the president does not stand for, and you see religious liberty being attacked as never before in this country. the faith-based community now understands what the alternative is is. and we understand that mitt romney, while some have said well, he is a mormon he is not an evangelical may not be the candidate of our religious choice, i can say with a surety that he aligns with family values, with the same sex marriage values, with the life values much more with the evangelical community than this president does. >> dr. mark smith, you are the president of ohio christian university. thanks so much for coming in and giving us your perspect

of the party. that is not what we want to hear. and that's not going to win for him. you know? mccain didn't win because he didn't have a real growth plan. bob dole didn't win because he didn't have a growth plan. you get my drift? you get my drift. growth republicans like reagan win. >> i get your drift, but i've got to tell you, we got a growth plan including the tax cuts at the energy plan, the trade, we're talking $12 million over ten years. it's a powerful plan. and the governor's message and including the tax reform piece of it that's going to lower the transaction costs of the code and contribute to growth. and the message is received. he will continue doing all that. but he's going to talk about -- >> i'm not a happy camper. i'm not a happy camper. >> it's half your value, larry. >> it's not about you, but you know my views. anyway, thank you. i'm sorry i interrupted. i know you worked hard to get on the set and help us tonight. i totally apologize for my interruption. >> not at all. >> jim talent, and now a senior economic adviser with the romney campaign. i thank you. i thank you

duckworth. >> i understand something about john mccain. his political advisers day after day had to take him and almost throw against the wall and hit him against the head and say, senator, you have to let people know you serve. you have to talk about what you did. he didn't want to do it. wouldn't do it. now i'm running against a woman who, my god, that's all she talks about. our true heroes, the men and women who served us, it's the last thing in the world that they talk about. >> you know, i don't even get it. i've never seen such bad taste in my life. this woman lost her legs in combat, nia, and to mock her coming up in the campaign, i don't know what the new rules are. >> that's right. this is one of the reasons he's so behind in polls and republicans are conceding that he will probably lose this race. he has gotten a bit of a lifeline thrown to him by the congressional committee. they put about $450,000 into this race and he'll be able to run some ads until election day. duckworth has ads out now and the fact that she'll go to washington and fight for her constituents there in that dis

a little bit about the debate. senator john mccain is here. he is -- he holds, i guess, an esteemed position of having -- mitt romney and barack obama. we want to talk about that, but, as you know, the world is seeing in libya, certainly in afghanistan, in places like that, have been chaotic recently with americans tragically killed. we want to get some updates from him about that as well. >> candy, it's always great seeing you. thank you for joining us. keep it here for candy's program "state of the union." it starts nine minutes from now precisely. 9:00 a.m. eastern time, 6:00 a.m. on the west coast right here on cnn. >> great one liner. from president reagan to vice president gore, comedian dean joins me to talk about some of the funniest and most memorable moments. ♪ [ male announce] how do you engineer a true automotive breakthrough? ♪ you give it bold new styling, unsurpassed luxury and nearly 1,000 improvements. introducing the redesigned 2013 glk. see your authorized mercedes-benz dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services. to meet the needs o

election day. early voting favored barack obama over john mccain by 18 points. 58% to 40%. this year, 27 states and washington, d.c., will he early in-person voting prior to election day. the cpaig are eatan early voting participation at around 40% this year. two out of every five ballots will be filled out before november 6th in this election cycle. today is truly the beginning of the end of the presidential election. butneanditesn m erition to take advantage of the new voting in this dynamic thing we call american democracy. here's a look at mitt romney's field offices in iowa. the romney camp pass 12 outposts acro the hawke state. w te ak a pde obsern. his field operation in iowa. the obama campaign has 66 of these outpost offices. the president's campaign has a 5 1/2-1 advantage over mitt romney when it comes to operation in iowa fed rent h campaigns. this is where campaigns stage the get out to vote efforts and organize volunteers. today, "the new york times" reported from polling places in iowa and found mostly outsken obama supporters. >> do you think that the romney ?rs a outotin

, colorado. a woman stood up and said, look, i was worried about the performance that john mccain put in four years ago against president obama, and she picks up the question from there. >> will he be forceful in those debates and take it to obama? [cheers and applause] >> ma'am, absolutely. one little difference between then and now. president obama has a record. [laughter] and president obama has a record and a string of broken promises. of course he will. >> reporter: congressman ryan -- sorry -- [cheers and applause] pledging that governor romney will take it to the president next wednesday in denver. no question though, jon, he needs a big move because if you see these polls in the battleground states, he is beginning to lose ground. he needs something big to happen. jon: well, they seem to like the message in the room behind him, is it the vfw hall? >> reporter: yes, it's a legion hall in springfield. jon: legion hall. john roberts, thank you. jenna: the first presidential debate gets underway just six days from now, and the big faceoff comes wednesday in denver. the president will hunk

need to be serious. >> not in a, of course. >> if we took the approach that president romney or frez mccain would have taken to syria, we would be now today engaged with ground troops in syria creating a humanitarian -- >> you're a prettyagr commander in chief for these guys. i don't think either suggested that. >> they call for a humanitarian commander. you occupy syrian territory. >> i don't think that is what that means. >> seizing territory. >> all i can tell you is that mouthing -- >> the american pple- are the american people ready for that kind of approach? the answer is no. >> i can'ta er you quite at muc but't tnk ignoring the death of 30,000 people is the right approach. >> no one is ignoring the death of 30,000 people. the regime is horrific and the president has spoken about that. t te anno e willt ut in my interviews with mitt romney and john mccain, they are not supporting u.s. ground forces going in. i think they have something more along the line like in air strikes or whatever, or a no-fly zone whichs whatheydi libya. >> military has been very clear about the fact if you es

able to close the deal for seniors. he looks like a whipper snapper compared to john mccain or barack obama. ryan who is younger, who doesn't understand the concerns of older americans more, if so, i think since 1992, actually, the party -- if obama were to go on to win, since '92, the party with more sober and serious vice presidential candidate actually will prevail. >> very interesting. mona eltahawy. october is breast cancer awareness month and since i'm associated with pink now, i am encouraging those to self-exam and get mammograms and seeing as i've been associated with the anti-muslim post -- will you come out to a subway station with me where i will take off my blouse and bare breasted dem station in store of my tattoo. >>> i hope you're watching. reporters, i want -- jeffrey toob in, author of the oath, the obama white house. barbara arn wine for the -- akil ammar and egyptian american journalist, mona eltahawy. >> our guests will include joseph stig litz, columbia university and author of the book of price of inequality. up next is melissa harris-perry. on today, debate clu

it clear to me he's an internationalist. he's not an isolationist. john mccain, for example, the other day was here in "the situation room" complaining about senator rand paul of kentucky calling him isolationist because he wants to end u.s. government foreign aid. romney made it clear he supports the establishment in going forward with a better more improved foreign aid but supports government foreign aid. what do you make of that? >> well, i think he's stating what has been republican policy for a long time. ronald reagan supported foreign aid, george h.w. bush and george w. bush also understood. i grew up in dubai, i understand. what i do disagree with and what the governor will also disagree with is we do need to probably stop funding countries that clearly aren't working in our interests. >> give me a name or two. >> well, i think if you look at the present course being run egypt or even in pakistan, i think we need to put some restrictions on our dollars being spent there. >> because the u.s. does give more than $1 billion a year to each of these countries, almost $2 billion to pakis

intentions. >> clayton: and a lot of republicans came out on his defense, after the london-- >> jo n mccain. >> clayton: that seemed to be a mistake, but let's give the gee credit because he's revered in the intelligence community. >> alisyn: and we'll have guests on this and try to find out more about what's going on with the director of national intelligence. meanwhile, your headlines. overnight, an american soldier and an american contractor has been killed in eastern afghanistan during what appears to be another insider attack. and this happened at a check point after some kind of misunderstanding. these deaths bring the number of people killed in afghanistan since the war began to 2000. the u.s. supreme court preparing to return to the bench for a crucial new term tomorrow. the nine justices will be making decisions, and chief justice john roberts the deciding vote that upheld president obama's health care law and sparked debate across the country. and keys to the city sold, locks smith sold a ring to an undercover reporter. a dream come true to potential terrorists, elevators, open su

large swaths for senator mccain. give us a sense of how the state is laid out and how that has changed over the years electorally? guest: phrygian traditionally years ago -- virginia was a democratic state of the byrd machine and it changed as the times changed. people were democratic were less enthusiastic about some of the demographic changes, the voting rights act, and they become republicans. the constitutional party candidate started out in politics in virginia as a democrat. then he became an independent. then he became a republican. schools closed in norfolk rather than to have blacks and whites together. but i don't think that the racial animosity in virginia is at an all-time high. it is present, but i think that the people of virginia have handled the situations and issues on race very well. people realize that there are going to be individuals on the far end and that incidents will happen. as a virginian, i thing the tone is not one of abject hostility. that askse's a tweet about urban centers such as northwest. social concerns such as homicide -- guest: give me the question

thing. she was getting mad that mccain -- she had these -- bragels on her. this is the article from -- this is how the article from politico starts. my favorite is the third paragraph. hang on, kids, it gets fun. >> stephanie: wait for it. >> paul ryan has gone rogue. haas enleashed unchange and off the hook. i hate to say if but if ryan wants to run for national office, he'll probably have to wash the stench of romney off of him. former director of the republican party of iowa told "the new york times" on sunday. coming from a resident of iowa, a state where people are polite even to soybeans, there was a powerful condemnation of the republican nominee. here it comes. though ryan had already decided to distance himself from the floundering roxny campaign, he now feels totally uninhibited. reportedly, he has been marching around his campaign bus saying things like if stench calls take a message. wait! and -- >> stephanie: really? >> tell stench i'm having finger sandwiches with beggy noonan and -- with peggy n

started was in 2008 and then senator obama and senator mccain came. when the president took office in a very busy time, he would still come here every year, and i think it is in no small measure because he basically started his life as an ngo. [applause] that is what he was. as a community organizer. and then he picked the secretary of state who was a walking ngo. [laughter] [applause] so i'm very grateful that he made time to join us here today to give a very important speech at the united nations earlier about all the things going on in the world and i am particularly appreciative of what he came here to speak about today so mr. president the podium is yours and thanks for coming, again. [applause] >> thank you. thank you so much. thank you. [applause] thank you very much. thank you, guys. thank you. appreciate it. everybody have a seat. well good afternoon everybody. and president clinton thank you for your very kind introduction of the last -- i must admit i really did like the speech a few weeks weeks ago a little bit better. [laughter] afterward somebody tweeted that, somebod

them back to reality. >> senator john mccain is the only man who has debated both of these individuals. he weighed in on the expectations this morning. take a listen. >> serve and provide us -- >> it's not just that they go bankrupt, he doesn't understand -- >> comments that grabbed everybody's attention. because frankly, the candidates are too well prepared. they're well scripted. >> what you did not hear the beginning there, is the senator said i think you're going to see more viewers, than any debate in history. and then he also said he can't remember the last time that any of these things affected the outcome of a presidential race. save 1960 and 2000, have the debates ever really impacted the outcome of a race, chris kofinis? >> it's funny, i hear the debate about debates not necessarily mattering. and i actually disagree with that i think the 1980, the reagan/carter debate. the debates mattered. they matter in every election, they either reinforce a narrative in the election meaning we think we're going to vote for president obama. president obama does well in that debate and it

, but it's a swing state when you have,ou know guys running like mitt romney and john mccain and bob dole. a tough conservative wins florida. >> what was the impact of that ad -- i couldn't believe when he picked ryan, the democrats ran an ad of some guy whoooke yaus granny off the edge of a cliff in a wheelchair. it was subtle. >> it was subtle but that doesn't work because marco rubio got elected by promising. the one big date that he had with charlie cristndhe deatppt, talked about raising social security to 70. bob graham, one of the most popular democratic politicians in florida history, always talked about the need of possly raising the retirement age for social security and medicare. therhe are a lot smarter than politicians think. so no, it wasn't that good. let's talk some more about ike because, again, i think the guy is slowly evolving into my favorite president. talk abo- you say he's a war hero whoated war. and i guess ike, after korea, u.s. serviceman wasn't killed? >> yeah, i think one or two were, but the point is, he did not commit u.s. troops to combat. >>veeight year >>

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